Free tool

The losing run to plan for.

At a 45% win rate, eight losses in a row is normal over 200 trades. See the run your own numbers bring, and the risk per trade that survives it.

At 1.00% a trade, a run of 12 losses takes you past 10%.

Chance of at least one run this long in 200 trades

Losses in a row	Chance	Drop
3	over 99.9%	−3.0%
4	over 99.9%	−3.9%
5	99.4%	−4.9%
6	93.0%	−5.9%
7	76%	−6.8%
8	53%	−7.7%
9	34%	−8.6%
10	20%	−9.6%
11	11%	−10.5%
12	6.4%	−11.4%

Your real losing run is in your journal.

Psychology shows your longest losing run and your deepest drop. Set your risk so you survive both inside your limits.

Get started See your real losing run in Psychology

How it’s calculated

The chance of a run is counted exactly, over every order your winners and losers can come in. The shortcut (1 − win rate) to the power of the run is the chance of one given run, and it understates the real chance badly.

A rough guide for the longest run: ln(trades) ÷ ln(1 ÷ loss rate).

Drop after k losses at risk r: 1 − (1 − r)^k, or k × r when you risk a fixed amount.

Gain needed to get back: drop ÷ (1 − drop).

Each trade is treated as independent of the last. Real losses tend to cluster, so real runs can be longer.

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