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Expectancy calculator, in plain words.

Expectancy is what one trade is worth to you on average. Enter how often you win and what you win and lose, counted in R, and see the number. Above zero, your trades add up.

Average result per trade

+0.20R

+20.0R over 100 trades

Win rate to break even

33.3%

Yours is 40.0%

At these numbers an average trade is worth +0.20R.

Some confluences are worth more than others.

EdgeFlow shows your expectancy for each confluence and each combination, with the trade count next to it.

Get startedSee your expectancy per confluence
How it’s calculated

Take your average win and multiply it by how often you win. Take your average loss and multiply it by how often you lose. The first minus the second is your expectancy.

For the win rate to break even, add your average win and average loss. Your average loss divided by that total is the win rate.

Everything is in R, where 1R is what one trade risks. Costs are left out.

The fewer trades you have, the more the result can swing. A short run can look better or worse than it is.

Read the guide: Trading expectancy explained

FAQ

Common questions

Expectancy is your average result per trade, counted over many trades. Above zero means your way of trading has been coming out ahead. Below zero means it has been losing money on average.

Multiply your average win by your win rate. Multiply your average loss by your loss rate. Subtract the second from the first. If 40% of your trades win 2R and 60% lose 1R, that is 0.8 minus 0.6, so +0.2R per trade.

Yes. At a 40% win rate with winners of 2R and losers of 1R, each trade averages +0.2R. What matters is your win rate against the break-even win rate for your average win and loss.

Any number above zero that holds over many trades. A big number over a handful of trades is more often luck than skill.

There is no fixed number. A small group of trades can show a positive result by luck, and the more trades you have, the more you can lean on the number.

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